Computing Eclipses, Occultations and Transits

Besselian elements for lunar occultations

workingupdated 2026-10-17occultationsbesselianfundamental-planepredictioniota
  • A star casts a cylindrical lunar shadow. On the fundamental plane, which is perpendicular to the star direction, the shadow is a circle of fixed radius k=0.2725k = 0.2725 Earth equatorial radii. The prediction condition is (x−ξ)2+(y−η)2=k2(x-\xi)^2 + (y-\eta)^2 = k^2 1 2.
  • The elements are given once, at conjunction in right ascension. They are the time T0T_0, the star's Greenwich hour angle HH, Y=y(T0)Y = y(T_0), the hourly rates x′x' and y′y', and the star's place. The Supplement treats xx and yy as linear in time to prediction precision 1 2.
  • Timing errors scale as 1/(kncosψ)1/(kn\cos\psi). This quantity falls to zero at a graze. HM Nautical Almanac Office (HMNAO) dropped predictions when |kncosψ|<0.030|kn\cos\psi| < 0.030 and dropped the longitude and latitude coefficients below 0.060 1.
  • The limit lines of an occultation are the eclipse limit lines with LL replaced by kk. Chauvenet states the condition as (x−ξ)cosN−(y−η)sinN=±k(x-\xi)\cos N - (y-\eta)\sin N = \pm k, with NN the direction of the shadow's motion 3.
  • Several values of kk have been in use. Predictions used 0.2725, reductions used Innes' 0.2724953 and then 0.2725026 from 1968, and the IAU adopted 0.2725076 in 1982 "to conform to the value used in occultation predictions" 1 2.
  • Publication moved from almanac offices to IOTA. HMNAO made worldwide predictions from 1937. The Astronomical Almanac of 1992 printed only dates and areas for planets and bright stars. The International Occultation Timing Association (IOTA) and the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada's Observer's Handbook (RASC Observer's Handbook) now publish predictions computed with Herald's Occult 1 2 4.
  • Standard-station coefficients have two sign conventions. The 1961 Supplement multiplies its aa by degrees of longitude west. The current RASC tables multiply AA by east-positive longitude. A program that mixes them inverts the longitude correction 1 4.

The question. How is the geometry of a solar eclipse reused to predict a lunar occultationlunar occultationThe passage of the Moon in front of a star or planet as seen by an observer. A solar eclipse is the special case in which the occulted body is the Sun. of a star? This note gives the elements, the station reduction, the limits on the Earth and the constants, as the almanac offices published them. It also says who publishes the predictions today and in what form. Limb corrections and grazes are in Grazes and the lunar limb. Catalogues, planets, reductions and the error budget are in Planets, catalogues and reduction.

From the shadow cone to the shadow cylinder

The Besselian elementsBesselian elementsThe time-dependent quantities xx, yy, dd, μ, l1l_1, l2l_2 and the constants tanf1f_1, tanf2f_2 that describe the Moon's shadow relative to the fundamental plane, from which any eclipse circumstance can be computed. of a solar eclipse describe two cones, because the Sun has a finite size and distance. A star has neither, so the cones become one cylinder. The 1961 Explanatory Supplement states the geometry directly: "In occultations, the fundamental planefundamental planeThe plane through the Earth's centre perpendicular to the axis of the Moon's shadow. Its x axis lies in the equator pointing east, its y axis points north, and the shadow's cross-section on it is an exact circle. passes through the centre of the Earth and is perpendicular to the line joining the star and the centre of the Moon, i.e. to the axis of the shadow" 1. The axes are the eclipse axes. The xx axis lies in the equator and is positive east, and the yy axis is positive north. The unit is the Earth's equatorial radius 1. The Supplement continues: "The great distance of the star implies that the fundamental plane is perpendicular to the line joining the centre of the Earth to the star, and that the Moon's shadow is essentially a cylinder whose intersection with the fundamental plane is a circle of invariable size, its diameter being equal to that of the Moon" 1. The 1992 Supplement repeats the paragraph in section 9.41 2.

This shadow cylindershadow cylinderFor a star at effectively infinite distance the Moon's shadow is a cylinder of radius kk rather than a cone, so on the fundamental plane it is a circle of fixed size whose centre moves with the Moon. removes four eclipse elements. There is no dd or μ\mu to compute, because the axis points at a fixed star. Its direction is the star's apparent right ascension α*\alpha_* and declination δ*\delta_*. There are no l1l_1, l2l_2, tanf1\tan f_1 or tanf2\tan f_2, because the radius on every plane parallel to the fundamental plane is the same constant kk. The ratio kk (lunar radius ratio)The Moon's radius divided by the Earth's equatorial radius. The IAU 1982 mean is 0.2725076; Espenak uses 0.272281 for umbral contacts because it matches the deepest limb valleys and observed totality durations, and the Five Millennium Canon used 0.2724880 for penumbral contacts. is the lunar radius in Earth equatorial radii, as in the eclipse case. The derivation of the eclipse elements is in Besselian elements, and this note only states where the occultation case differs.

The fundamental plane of a lunar occultationThe fundamental plane seen along the line from the star. The Earth is a circle of unit radius with x running east and y running north from its centre. A straight track, rising gently from left to right, crosses near the top of the Earth's disc; it is the path of the centre of the Moon's shadow. Three circles of radius k are drawn on the track, at one hour before conjunction, at conjunction and one hour after; the middle one is solid and the other two are dashed. Two dotted lines parallel to the track, one above and one below, bound the band the circle sweeps. The lower line cuts across the Earth's disc and is labelled southern limit; the upper line lies wholly off the disc and is labelled northern limit. A vertical dimension on the left marks Y, the height of the track above the Earth's centre at conjunction, and an arrow inside the middle circle marks its radius k.x (east)the Earth's centrethe Earth's disc, radius 1track of (x, y)northern limitsouthern limitT₀ − 1 hT₀T₀ + 1 hkYSchematic from the elements of ES 1961 Example 10.2: Y = +0.9753, x′ = +0.6046, y′ = +0.0543, k = 0.2725.The Earth's rotation is not drawn, so the band shows the shadow's sweep on the plane, not the zone on the ground.

The coordinates of the shadow axis

The Moon's apparent right ascension αm\alpha_\mathrm{m}, declination δm\delta_\mathrm{m} and equatorial horizontal parallaxhorizontal parallaxThe angle subtended by the Earth's equatorial radius at a body's distance. The Moon's horizontal parallax πm_m gives its distance in Earth radii as 1/sinπm1/_m. The Sun's at 1 au is 8.794 arcseconds. πm\pi_\mathrm{m} give the axis coordinates. The 1961 Supplement writes 1

xsinπm=cosδmsin(αm−α*),ysinπm=sinδmcosδ*−cosδmsinδ*cos(αm−α*). x\sin\pi_\mathrm{m} = \cos\delta_\mathrm{m}\sin(\alpha_\mathrm{m}-\alpha_*),\qquad y\sin\pi_\mathrm{m} = \sin\delta_\mathrm{m}\cos\delta_* - \cos\delta_\mathrm{m}\sin\delta_*\cos(\alpha_\mathrm{m}-\alpha_*).

These are the eclipse equations for xx and yy with the point Z replaced by the star, so a→α*a \to \alpha_* and d→δ*d \to \delta_* 1 5. For predictions the Supplement reduces them to

x=15cosδm(αm−α*)πm,y=δm−δ*πm+0.000036x(αm−α*)sinδ*, x = \frac{15\cos\delta_\mathrm{m}\,(\alpha_\mathrm{m}-\alpha_*)}{\pi_\mathrm{m}},\qquad y = \frac{\delta_\mathrm{m}-\delta_*}{\pi_\mathrm{m}} + 0.000036\,x\,(\alpha_\mathrm{m}-\alpha_*)\sin\delta_*,

"in which αm−α*\alpha_\mathrm{m}-\alpha_* is in seconds of time, and δm−δ*\delta_\mathrm{m}-\delta_* and πm\pi_\mathrm{m} are in seconds of arc" 1. The second term of yy "may be replaced by +0.0083x2tanδ*+0.0083x^2\tan\delta_*, with a further error not exceeding 0.0002" 1. The 1992 edition gives the same reduction in degrees as its equation 9.41-2 2:

x=(α−αs)cosδπ,y=δ−δsπ+0.0087x(α−αs)sinδs. x = \frac{(\alpha-\alpha_s)\cos\delta}{\pi},\qquad y = \frac{\delta-\delta_s}{\pi} + 0.0087\,x\,(\alpha-\alpha_s)\sin\delta_s .

Here unsubscripted symbols are the Moon's and the subscript ss is the star's. The constants agree. In seconds of time, 0.000036≈15/(2×206265)0.000036 \approx 15/(2\times 206265). In degrees, 0.0087 is half of one degree in radians, 0.008727. Both are half the radians-per-unit factor of the angle. That factor comes from the first-order term of 1−cos(αm−α*)1-\cos(\alpha_\mathrm{m}-\alpha_*).

The elements at conjunction

The elements are given "for one instant only, namely, the time of conjunction of the star and Moon in right ascension, when xx is zero" 1. This set of occultation elementsoccultation elementsThe Besselian elements of a lunar occultation of a star, given once for the instant of conjunction in right ascension: the time T0T_0, the Greenwich hour angle HH of the star, YY, the hourly rates x′x' and y′y', and the star's right ascension and declination. is 1 2:

Element Meaning
T0T_0 UT of conjunction in right ascension
HH Greenwich hour angle of the star at T0T_0
YY yy at T0T_0, in Earth equatorial radii
x′x', y′y' hourly rates of xx and yy, Earth radii per hour
α*\alpha_*, δ*\delta_* apparent right ascension and declination of the star

At conjunction the Supplement gives 1

x=0,Y=δm−δ*πm,x′=15cosδmα′mπm,y′=δ′m−Yπ′mπm, x = 0,\qquad Y = \frac{\delta_\mathrm{m}-\delta_*}{\pi_\mathrm{m}},\qquad x' = \frac{15\cos\delta_\mathrm{m}\,\alpha'_\mathrm{m}}{\pi_\mathrm{m}},\qquad y' = \frac{\delta'_\mathrm{m} - Y\pi'_\mathrm{m}}{\pi_\mathrm{m}},

with α′m\alpha'_\mathrm{m} the hourly variation of right ascension in seconds of time and δ′m\delta'_\mathrm{m}, π′m\pi'_\mathrm{m} in seconds of arc. "As xx and yy are linear to the precision required x′x' and y′y' are constant" 1. The 1992 edition derives the rates by "differentiating the Moon's daily polynomial coefficients" 2.

The Office computed every element twice as a check. The first method takes x1,y1x_1, y_1 and x2,y2x_2, y_2 at the integral hours T1T_1 and T2T_2 that bracket conjunction. Then x′=x2−x1x' = x_2 - x_1, y′=y2−y1y' = y_2 - y_1, TE=T1−x1/x′T_E = T_1 - x_1/x' and Y=y1−x1y′/x′Y = y_1 - x_1 y'/x' 1. The second method interpolates the lunar ephemeris to TET_E and applies the direct formulas 1. The Moon's ephemeris was tabulated in Ephemeris Time, so the elements were computed in that scale and then moved to UT by 1

T0=TE−ΔT,H=HE−1.002738ΔT. T_0 = T_E - \Delta T,\qquad H = H_E - 1.002738\,\Delta T .

The worked example is Z.C. 2833, Zodiacal Catalogue number 2833, on 1960 September 1. It gives TE=19h.7924T_E = 19^\mathrm{h}.7924 ET, Y=+0.9753Y = +0.9753, x′=+0.6046x' = +0.6046, y′=+0.0543y' = +0.0543 and, with ΔT=36\Delta T = 36 s, T0=19h.7824T_0 = 19^\mathrm{h}.7824 UT 1. A modern implementation takes these quantities in TT from a JPL ephemeris and applies ΔTΔTThe difference TT − UT1 between uniform Terrestrial Time, in which the elements are computed, and Universal Time, which follows the Earth's irregular rotation. About 69 s in 2024. It converts the hour angle μ to a geographic longitude, is known only by prediction for future eclipses, and is the largest error source for historical ones. once, as for eclipses. The selection of conjunctions before this step is a declination test. "If at any instant a star is within an angular distance of the Moon of less than the sum of the Moon's horizontal parallax and semi-diameter, it must be occulted as seen from some point on the Earth" 1 2.

The station reduction and the time of contact

For an observer with geocentric coordinates ρsinφ′\rho\sin\varphi' and ρcosφ′\rho\cos\varphi', the parallax constantsρ sin φ′, ρ cos φ′The observer's geocentric coordinates on the ellipsoid, ρsinϕ′=(1−e2)sinϕ(1−e2sin2ϕ)−1/2' = (1 - e^2),(1 - e22)^{-1/2} and ρcosϕ′=cosϕ(1−e2sin2ϕ)−1/2' = ,(1 - e22)^{-1/2}, with ϕ the geodetic latitude and ee the eccentricity of the spheroid., and longitude λ\lambda, the Supplement forms the star's local hour angle at the trial interval tt from conjunction 1:

h=H−λ+ts,ts=1.002738t. h = H - \lambda + t_s,\qquad t_s = 1.002738\,t .

In the 1961 Supplement λ\lambda is in hours and positive west. Strasbourg has λ=−0h.518\lambda = -0^\mathrm{h}.518 in the worked example 1. The observer's projection on the fundamental plane is

ξ=ρcosφ′sinh,η=ρsinφ′cosδ*−qhsinδ*,qh=ρcosφ′cosh. \xi = \rho\cos\varphi'\sin h,\qquad \eta = \rho\sin\varphi'\cos\delta_* - q_h\sin\delta_*,\qquad q_h = \rho\cos\varphi'\cos h .

The Supplement writes qhq_h as QQ 1. This site keeps QQ for the shadow-edge angle, so the auxiliary is renamed here. The relative coordinates and their hourly rates are

f=x−ξ,g=y−η,f′=x′−h′qh,g′=y′−h′ξsinδ*, f = x - \xi,\quad g = y - \eta,\qquad f' = x' - h'q_h,\quad g' = y' - h'\xi\sin\delta_*,

where h′=2π×1.002738/24=0.2625h' = 2\pi\times1.002738/24 = 0.2625 radians per hour is the Earth's rotation rate 1. The Supplement's ff and gg are the u=x−ξu = x - \xi and v=y−ηv = y - \eta of the eclipse contact solution in Contact times and magnitude. This topic keeps the Supplement's letters.

"The only mathematical condition to be satisfied is that, at the time of disappearance or reappearance, the line joining the star and the observer must be tangential to the limb of the Moon" 1. On the plane this is

f2+g2−k2=0,k=0.2725. f^2 + g^2 - k^2 = 0,\qquad k = 0.2725 .

From a preliminary interval t1t_1 the first correction is 1

Δt1=k2−f12−g122(f1f1′+g1g1′). \Delta t_1 = \frac{k^2 - f_1^2 - g_1^2}{2\,(f_1f_1' + g_1g_1')} .

The Supplement adds a second-order term Δt2\Delta t_2 that "is negligible in most cases but becomes appreciable as kn1cosψ1kn_1\cos\psi_1 becomes small, that is as grazing conditions are approached" 1. With

n2=f′2+g′2,kncosψ=ff′+gg′, n^2 = f'^2 + g'^2,\qquad kn\cos\psi = ff' + gg',

the exact condition at t1+Δtt_1 + \Delta t is the quadratic n12Δt2+2kn1cosψ1Δt−(k2−f12−g12)=0n_1^2\Delta t^2 + 2kn_1\cos\psi_1\,\Delta t - (k^2 - f_1^2 - g_1^2) = 0. Its second-order solution gives Δt2=−n12Δt12/(2kn1cosψ1)\Delta t_2 = -n_1^2\,\Delta t_1^2/(2kn_1\cos\psi_1). This form is derived here from the quadratic and is not the Supplement's printed expression, which this note does not reproduce. It shows why the term grows as kn1cosψ1kn_1\cos\psi_1 falls. A third correction, if one is needed, is (k2−f2−g2)/(2kncosψ)(k^2 - f^2 - g^2)/(2kn\cos\psi) 1. The position angleposition angleAn angle measured on the sky at the centre of a disk, from celestial north through east, used to locate a point on the limb of the Sun or Moon. Contact points and limb heights are indexed by it. of the event, "measured eastwards from the north point of the Moon's disk", follows from 1

sinP=−f/k,cosP=−g/k. \sin P = -f/k,\qquad \cos P = -g/k .

The Supplement's worked numbers check these signs. At Strasbourg, f=−0.2716f = -0.2716 and g=+0.0238g = +0.0238 give P=95∘P = 95^{\circ}, and kncosψ=−0.118kn\cos\psi = -0.118 marks a disappearance. The predicted time is 19h01m.019^\mathrm{h}\,01^\mathrm{m}.0 UT 1. The symbol PP has this site's meaning, the position angle of a contact.

What kn cos ψ measures

"The quantity nn is a measure of the Moon's motion relative to the observer and ψ\psi is the angle between the radius from the centre of the Moon to the star and the direction of this motion" 1. The angle ψ\psi lies between 90 and 180 degrees for disappearances and between 0 and 90 degrees for reappearances. So kn cos ψkn cos ψThe quantity in the Explanatory Supplement's prediction method equal to kk times the radial rate ncosψn at which the observer's projection crosses the Moon's limb along the radius to the star. Timing errors scale as its inverse, so it tends to zero as an occultation becomes a graze. is negative for a disappearancedisappearance and reappearance (D, R)The two events of an ordinary occultation: the star vanishes at the Moon's leading limb (D) and returns at the trailing limb (R). Reports add the limb, so DD is a disappearance at the dark limb and RB a reappearance at the bright limb. and positive for a reappearance 1. "Any error in the position of the star or in the assumed limb of the Moon gives rise to an error in the predicted time of occultation that is inversely proportional to kncosψkn\cos\psi" 1. This is the occultation form of Herald's sec(PA−N)\sec(\mathrm{PA}-N) factor for eclipse contacts 6. HMNAO used it as the graze filter. "The occultations are omitted completely when the value of kncosψkn\cos\psi at the moment of occultation is numerically less than 0.030, unless the star is brighter than 1.5 when the limiting value is 0.015", and the coefficients are omitted below 0.060 1.

Because f2+g2=k2f^2 + g^2 = k^2 at contact, the rate at which the observer's distance from the shadow axis changes is (ff′+gg′)/k=ncosψ(ff' + gg')/k = n\cos\psi. So kncosψkn\cos\psi is kk times the radial rate, and the radial rate itself is ncosψ=(kncosψ)/kn\cos\psi = (kn\cos\psi)/k Earth radii per hour. One Earth radius on the plane subtends πm\pi_\mathrm{m} at the Moon's distance, about 3422 arcseconds at mean distance 7. For the Strasbourg event the radial rate is 0.118/0.2725×3422/3600=0.410.118/0.2725 \times 3422/3600 = 0.41 arcseconds per second of time normal to the limb. This conversion is derived here. It matches the 0.2 to 0.4 arcseconds per second that the light-curve archive gives for typical events 8.

Altitude, Sun and preliminary times

The program also rejected low events. After forming hh it computes

salt=sin(alt)−sin10∘=ρsinφ′sinδ*+qhcosδ*−0.173, s_\mathrm{alt} = \sin(\mathrm{alt}) - \sin 10^{\circ} = \rho\sin\varphi'\sin\delta_* + q_h\cos\delta_* - 0.173,

and examines events with negative salts_\mathrm{alt} 1. The Supplement writes ss. The subscript is added here because ss is the lunar semidiameter elsewhere in this topic. The magnitude and Sun limits of 1961 were these. Stars to magnitude 7.5 from the Zodiacal Catalogue were included. Events at the bright limbdark limb and bright limbThe unlit and sunlit parts of the Moon's edge. Events at the dark limb are sharp and easy to time. Events at the bright limb are hidden by glare except for bright stars. were limited: disappearances were included only to magnitude 4.5 and reappearances to 3.5. Dark-limb reappearances were included to 6.5. The Moon had to be 10 degrees high, or 2 degrees for stars of magnitude 1.9 and brighter. Solar depression limits ran from sunset to 12 degrees depending on magnitude 1. The IOTA manual states that "observations of daytime events are usually impossible for stars fainter than magnitude 3.0-3.5" 9. The RASC Handbook graze maps draw daytime tracks dotted and mark with S the end of a track where "sunlight or twilight interferes" 4.

Preliminary times came from the "occultation machine". This was a globe and a cylindrical beam of light set to the elements, built for HMNAO in 1934 after J. D. McNeile's 1928 machine 1. A computer replaces it with either of the Supplement's alternatives. One alternative solves the quadratic (f0+f0′Δt)2+(g0+g0′Δt)2−k2=0(f_0 + f_0'\Delta t)^2 + (g_0 + g_0'\Delta t)^2 - k^2 = 0 from conjunction. The other tabulates f2+g2−k2f^2 + g^2 - k^2 at five or six whole hours and interpolates inversely 1. For the second, the rigorous station terms from conjunction are 1

ft=f0+x′t+ξ0(1−costs)−qh0sints,gt=g0+y′t−sinδ*[qh0(1−costs)+ξ0sints], f_t = f_0 + x't + \xi_0(1-\cos t_s) - q_{h0}\sin t_s,\qquad g_t = g_0 + y't - \sin\delta_*\,\big[q_{h0}(1-\cos t_s) + \xi_0\sin t_s\big],

with tst_s in radians of sidereal rotation. The factor ξ0\xi_0 on sints\sin t_s is supplied here from the condition that dgt/dtdg_t/dt at t=0t = 0 equal g′g' as defined above. The Supplement warns that "the non-linearity of f′f' and g′g' may make the difference between a 'graze' and a complete miss". In the miss case the time of closest approach Δt=−(f0f0′+g0g0′)/n2\Delta t = -(f_0f_0' + g_0g_0')/n^2 is the new starting point 1.

Coefficients for nearby observers

A table for about 80 standard stations served the world in 1961 1. Observers near a station corrected the time with the a and b coefficientsa and b coefficientsThe rates of change of a predicted occultation time with the observer's longitude and latitude, in minutes of time per degree, published with standard-station predictions so that nearby observers can correct the time. 1:

a=−Kkncosψ(fqh+gξsinδ*),b=−Kkncosψ{Cell2ρsinφ′(fsinh−gsinδ*cosh)−SCellρcosφ′gcosδ*}, a = -\frac{K}{kn\cos\psi}\,\big(f q_h + g\xi\sin\delta_*\big),\qquad b = -\frac{K}{kn\cos\psi}\,\big\{C_{\mathrm{ell}}^2\rho\sin\varphi'\,(f\sin h - g\sin\delta_*\cos h) - SC_{\mathrm{ell}}\rho\cos\varphi'\,g\cos\delta_*\big\},

where K=1.047K = 1.047 converts hours per radian to minutes of time per degree, and S=ρsinφ′/sinφS = \rho\sin\varphi'/\sin\varphi and Cell=ρcosφ′/cosφC_{\mathrm{ell}} = \rho\cos\varphi'/\cos\varphi are the ellipsoid auxiliaries 1. The Supplement writes CC for CellC_{\mathrm{ell}}. This site keeps CC for Herald's angle from the contact point. They "may each be taken as unity", with a maximum error of 0.03 minutes 1. For an observer Δλ\Delta\lambda degrees west and Δφ\Delta\varphi degrees north of the station,

approximate time=predicted time+aΔλ+bΔφ. \text{approximate time} = \text{predicted time} + a\,\Delta\lambda + b\,\Delta\varphi .

The Strasbourg example gives a=−1.5a = -1.5 and b=+0.4b = +0.4 minutes per degree 1. The error is "unlikely to be greater than one minute" within 200 miles and may reach two minutes at 300 miles. A second-order correction of +0.075cos2φ(Δφ)2+0.075\cos^2\varphi\,(\Delta\varphi)^2 minutes is added for disappearances and subtracted for reappearances 1.

The RASC Handbook uses the same device for its 18 North American standard stations, computed by Dunham with Occult 4 4. Its formula is UT=UT*+A(Lo−Lo*)+B(La−La*)\mathrm{UT} = \mathrm{UT}_* + A(L_o - L_o^*) + B(L_a - L_a^*) in minutes per degree, for stations within 300 km. "Longitude measured west of Greenwich is assumed to be negative (which is now the IAU convention and that used by IOTA's Occult software)" 4. The 1961 aa multiplies degrees west, so A=−aA = -a for the same event. The RASC tables warn that values of A or B above 5 "will not give a reliable prediction for other places" near grazes 4.

Where the occultation can be seen

Chauvenet's limit condition

Chauvenet treats the limits by the eclipse method. "For a point on the limiting curve, the least value of Δ\Delta in Art. 324 is in a solar eclipse =L= L, but in an occultation it is =k= k" 3. With the direction of relative motion NN defined by nsinN=x′n\sin N = x' and ncosN=y′n\cos N = y', the condition becomes 3

(x−ξ)cosN−(y−η)sinN=±k. (x - \xi)\cos N - (y - \eta)\sin N = \pm k .

With xx and yy linear in time, Chauvenet reduces it to (x0−ξ)cosN−(y0−η)sinN=±k(x_0 - \xi)\cos N - (y_0 - \eta)\sin N = \pm k, with x0x_0 and y0y_0 at any epoch T0T_0 3. Geometrically, the observer's projection must lie on one of the two lines parallel to the shadow track at perpendicular distance kk. These are the northern and southern limit linesnorthern and southern limit linesThe two curves on the Earth's surface along which the star's track is tangent to the Moon's mean limb. Outside them there is no occultation. Near them a graze is seen.. Because ξ\xi and η\eta depend on time through the Earth's rotation, a point on the ground satisfies the condition at the instant of closest approach. The same condition with the sign choice and NN defines the graze zonegraze zoneThe narrow band, typically 5 to 10 km wide, along each umbral limit where the irregular lunar limb makes the eclipse neither wholly total nor wholly partial and Baily's beads persist. NASA bulletins tabulate its interior and exterior boundaries., which Grazes and the lunar limb treats with the limb profile.

Limiting parallels

Before maps were practical the almanacs printed limiting parallelslimiting parallelsThe most northerly and most southerly latitudes from which a given occultation can be seen, published with the old prediction elements as a quick visibility test. "outside which the star could not be occulted" 1. The 1961 Supplement summarises Chauvenet's result. Set cotN=y′/x′\cot N = y'/x' with y′y' positive and 0<N<90∘0 < N < 90^{\circ}. Then cosε1=YsinN+0.2725\cos\varepsilon_1 = Y\sin N + 0.2725, cosε2=YsinN−0.2725\cos\varepsilon_2 = Y\sin N - 0.2725 and sinβ=sinNcosδ*\sin\beta = \sin N\cos\delta_* 1. The Supplement writes γ1\gamma_1 and γ2\gamma_2. They are renamed here because γ\gamma is the eclipse axis distance elsewhere on this site. A table of ten cases for northern and southern declinations then gives the northern and southern limiting latitudes φ1\varphi_1 and φ2\varphi_2, from forms such as sinφ2=sin(N−ε2)cosδ*\sin\varphi_2 = \sin(N - \varepsilon_2)\cos\delta_*, or the poles when an ε\varepsilon is imaginary 1. The Supplement credits the method to Chauvenet, volume 1, page 561 1. This note does not reproduce the case table. A modern implementation does not need it, because it can trace the limit lines directly.

The 1992 visibility map

The 1992 Supplement replaces the limiting parallels with a map recipe for a personal computer 2. The shadow centre at time tt from conjunction is x=x′tx = x't, y=y′t+Yy = y't + Y (equation 9.41-4). Its geographic position on a spherical Earth of unit radius comes from equation 9.41-5:

φ=sin−1(ycosδs+zsinδs),h=tan−1x−ysinδs+zcosδs,λ=h−(H+15t×1.0027380), \varphi = \sin^{-1}(y\cos\delta_s + z\sin\delta_s),\qquad h = \tan^{-1}\frac{x}{-y\sin\delta_s + z\cos\delta_s},\qquad \lambda = h - (H + 15t\times1.0027380),

with zz the coordinate along the axis toward the Moon 2. On the unit sphere z=1−x2−y2z = \sqrt{1 - x^2 - y^2}. In the form above λ\lambda is positive east and angles are in degrees. The signs in the longitude line are fixed here by the requirement that xx is positive east. Points on the edge of the shadow are ξ=x−ksinQ\xi = x - k\sin Q and η=y−kcosQ\eta = y - k\cos Q as QQ runs from 0 to 360 degrees, with k=0.2725k = 0.2725 (equation 9.41-6) 2. Here QQ is an angle around the shadow edge, which is this site's use of QQ. When the shadow is only partly on the Earth, the cut points come from equation 9.41-8 with D=x02+y02D = \sqrt{x_0^2 + y_0^2} and ϑD=tan−1(y0/x0)\vartheta_D = \tan^{-1}(y_0/x_0) 2. The Supplement writes SS for ϑD\vartheta_D. This site keeps SS for the ellipsoid auxiliary. The Supplement gives Q2=180∘−Q1−2ϑDQ_2 = 180^{\circ} - Q_1 - 2\vartheta_D and a right side with denominator 2kD2kD 2. Requiring the edge point to lie on the unit circle gives the full equation, derived here:

sin(Q1+ϑD)=D2+k2−12kD. \sin(Q_1 + \vartheta_D) = \frac{D^2 + k^2 - 1}{2kD} .

The recipe is spherical and ignores the observer's height. It is a visibility map, not a limit-line product. "A similar procedure may be applied for predicting the areas of visibility of occultations of planets by the Moon" 2.

The constant k

The occultation literature carries its own history of kk, tied to the eclipse history in Besselian elements.

Value of kk Where used Source
0.27227 Burckhardt's value from eclipses and occultations, used by Chauvenet for eclipses 3
0.27264 Oudemans' value "for occultations", about 1.25 arcseconds larger in semidiameter 3
0.2724953 Innes 1924, HMNAO occultation reductions 1
0.2725026 HMNAO reductions "for 1968 onwards" 1
0.2725 HMNAO and ES 1992 predictions and maps 1 2
0.2725076 IAU 1982, adopted "to conform to the value used in occultation predictions" 2

Chauvenet notes that "it is only for the reduction of isolated observations that we need an exact value, since, when we have a number of observations, the correction of whatever value of kk we may use will be obtained by the solution of our equations of condition" 3. The 1992 Supplement says the 1982 adoption meant "that limb effects are no longer accounted for, but are averaged" 2. Morrison's reductions instead carried a semidiameter at mean distance of 932.58 arcseconds, computed as sm,0=0.0799+0.272453π0s_{\mathrm{m},0} = 0.0799 + 0.272453\,\pi_0 arcseconds from the parallax 10. Morrison writes s0s_0. This site keeps s0s_0 for the solar semidiameter at 1 au. The photoelectric solution of Morrison and Appleby then corrected it by +0.044±0.015+0.044 \pm 0.015 arcseconds 7. A modern reduction with Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) limb heights has a different reference radius again. That question is in Grazes and the lunar limb.

Who published predictions

Almanac offices. Prediction elements first appeared in The Nautical Almanac for 1824, with predictions for Greenwich from 1834. "The American Ephemeris gave prediction elements and predictions for Washington from its introduction in 1855" 1. HMNAO undertook "a world-wide coverage of predictions" from 1937. From 1943 it was "responsible for the collation, reduction, and discussion of observations" 1. The programme "may well include over 8000 predictions a year" 1. Grazing-occultation maps and detailed graze predictions were issued from the 1960s, according to the 1973 note in the reprint 1. Elements were dropped from the American Ephemeris after 1959. Predictions were left to "other publications" for North America and the Commonwealth 1. The BAA computing section reduced amateur observations up to 1942, and the BAA Handbook carried the predictions of occultations of stars by planets 1.

The Astronomical Almanac and ILOC. By 1992 "only dates and general areas of visibility for the occultations of planets and bright stars by the Moon are published in The Astronomical Almanac" 2. The International Lunar Occultation Centre of the Hydrographic Department in Tokyo was "responsible for the predictions and reductions of timings", and IOTA "provides predictions of occultations" 2. ILOC collected observations from 1981 to 2008, when IOTA took over 11. For grazes in North America, "prior to 1993, data for predictions were provided by the United States Naval Observatory" 9. This note does not establish whether the current Astronomical Almanac still prints these occultations.

IOTA, RASC, BAA and RASNZ. The RASC Handbook for 2026 prints total-occultation tables for 18 standard stations to magnitude 6.0, with AA, BB and the cusp anglecusp angle (CA)The angle around the Moon's limb from the nearer cusp to the point of an event, positive on the dark side and negative on the sunlit side, as used in IOTA and RASC predictions.. Dunham computed them with Occult 4. Riedel and Dunham add a graze map and table for 21 bright events 4. The British Astronomical Association (BAA) Handbook carries graze predictions and the BAA Lunar Section sends timings to IOTA 12. The Royal Astronomical Society of New Zealand (RASNZ) Occultation Section publishes yearly total-occultation predictions for New Zealand and Australia and recommends Herald's program 13. Occult itself produces single-site and all-star searches and graze tables 14 15.

Sources compared

Source Elements and formulas Constants Unique content
ES 1961 section 10 1 x,yx, y, rates, conjunction elements, station reduction, Δt\Delta t iteration, aa and bb, limiting parallels k=0.2725k = 0.2725 for prediction, 0.2724953 and 0.2725026 for reduction, h′=0.2625h' = 0.2625 The worked Z.C. 2833 example, prediction limits, the kncosψkn\cos\psi graze filter
ES 1992 section 9.4 2 The same elements in degrees, shadow-centre and shadow-edge geography, visibility map k=0.2725k = 0.2725, IAU 0.2725076 in 8.12 Map recipe 9.41-4 to 9.41-9, the planetary condition 9.42-1, ILOC's role
Chauvenet 3 Prediction for a place, limiting curves and parallels Burckhardt 0.27227, Oudemans 0.27264 The limit condition (x−ξ)cosN−(y−η)sinN=±k(x-\xi)\cos N - (y-\eta)\sin N = \pm k
RASC Handbook 2026 4 Standard-station tables from Occult 4 Not stated East-positive AA and BB, cusp angle, 300 km validity
Occult 15 14 Implementation, closed source Not documented online Current predictions for IOTA and RASC

What a developer should do

Implement the 1961 station reduction as written, with ff, gg, f′f', g′g' and kncosψkn\cos\psi. Then replace its linear elements by a direct evaluation of xx and yy from the ephemeris at each iteration. The linear form is exact enough for minutes and seconds of prediction but not for 0.01 second reductions. Compute the star's apparent place for the event date, and take αm\alpha_\mathrm{m}, δm\delta_\mathrm{m} and πm\pi_\mathrm{m} from a JPL DE ephemeris in TT. Use the same rigorous ξ\xi and η\eta as the eclipse pipeline, with geodetic height and an ellipsoid. Report kncosψkn\cos\psi, or the radial limb rate ncosψn\cos\psi in arcseconds per second, with every time. Flag events where it is small, as HMNAO did. Report position angle PP and the cusp angle. Make kk an explicit input. Use 0.2725076 when reproducing modern smooth-limb predictions, and let the limb stage carry the real silhouette. If you publish standard-station coefficients, state the longitude sign. Trace limit lines from Chauvenet's condition by solving, for each longitude, for the latitude at which the minimum of f2+g2\sqrt{f^2+g^2} over time equals kk. This search is derived from the condition and is not quoted from a source.

What this changes

The eclipse pipeline already has everything an occultation needs except the star. The ephemeris layer must accept a catalogue star with its epoch and space motion as a target, and the element stage must accept a cylinder, so that l1=l2=kl_1 = l_2 = k and tanf1=tanf2=0\tan f_1 = \tan f_2 = 0. The local-circumstance solver can be shared if it takes kk and a target direction as inputs. Products gain two fields that eclipses lack: kncosψkn\cos\psi, which is kk times the radial limb rate, and the cusp angle.

Open questions

  • Obtain the HMNAO booklet "The Prediction and Reduction of Occultations" (supplement to The Nautical Almanac for 1938). It describes the occultation machine and Comrie's reduction elements that the Supplement summarises.
  • Obtain ES 1961 pp. 285 and 288 as page images, for the ten-case limiting-parallel table and the printed Δt2\Delta t_2 term.
  • Obtain a current edition of The Astronomical Almanac to confirm whether it still prints lunar occultations of planets and bright stars, and in which section.
  • Obtain Occult's help file topic on lunar predictions to record which kk, which reference radius and which ephemeris the 2026 version uses.
  • Obtain Foxell's 1934 paper in Memoirs of the British Astronomical Association, volume 30, pages 107 to 148, which the Supplement cites for occultation maps.

References

  1. 1peer-reviewed Explanatory Supplement to the Astronomical Ephemeris and the American Ephemeris and Nautical Almanac (1961, reprint with 1973 added notes), section 10 Occultations, pp. 277-305 Read in full from the archive.org OCR text. Source of the occultation Besselian elements (T, H, Y, x', y'), the formulas for x and y and their rates, the station reduction with f, g and kn cos psi, the position angle, the a and b coefficients, the limiting parallels, the prediction limits, the k values 0.2725, 0.2724953 and 0.2725026, the reduction to delta-sigma, the limb correction arguments and section F on planetary occultations. Some equations are damaged in the OCR text.
  2. 2peer-reviewed Seidelmann, P. K. (ed.), Explanatory Supplement to the Astronomical Almanac (1992), section 9.4 Occultations (pp. 494-498), section 8.12 on k, and section 4.51 on historical UT1 Read sections 9.41, 9.42, the k paragraph of 8.12 and 4.51 in the archive.org OCR text. Source of equations 9.41-2 to 9.41-9 for the shadow on the Earth and the visibility map, the planetary occultation condition 9.42-1, the statement that ILOC in Tokyo reduced timings, and the 1982 adoption of k = 0.2725076 to conform to occultation work. Equation 9.41-8 is partly illegible in the scan.
  3. 3primary Chauvenet, W., A Manual of Spherical and Practical Astronomy, Vol. I (1863), chapter on Eclipses, Arts. 288 to 296 Read Arts. 288 to 291 and the cone-angle precepts in OCR text (garbled in places). Original almanac form of Bessel's method: point Z as the Sun seen from the Moon's centre, equations (482) for x y z, principal plane of reference, log k = 9.435000, c = z ± k/sin f, l = c tan f.
  4. 4trade Dunham, D. W. (2026). Lunar Occultations. RASC Observer's Handbook 2026 Read (pdftotext). States that graze observations complement LRO laser ranging and have revealed small residual errors still under investigation, and that graze zones are 2 to 3 km wide.
  5. 5peer-reviewed Explanatory Supplement to the Astronomical Ephemeris and the American Ephemeris and Nautical Almanac (1961), section 9B Eclipses and Transits Read in full (OCR text). Definitive almanac formulation: fundamental plane, point Z, x y z, mu from ephemeris sidereal time, sin f1 sin f2 with tabulated numerators for k = 0.272274, 0.2724807, 0.272281 and 0.2724880, c1 c2 l1 l2, sign convention, observer coordinates, ephemeris meridian 1.002738 ΔT, worked example 1961 Feb 15.
  6. 6peer-reviewed Herald, D. (1983). Correcting predictions of solar eclipse contact times for the effects of lunar limb irregularities. Journal of the British Astronomical Association 93, 241-246 Read in full from the ADS scan (page images). The displacement-curve method: h = 960 (M-1)(1-cos P), r = 0.97 M n arcsec per second, radial rate r cos(PA-N), the path-limit factor 1.863 km per arcsec times sqrt(sin^2 D / sin^2 a + cos^2 D), the limiting magnitudes for total and annular eclipses, and the error budget.
  7. 7peer-reviewed Morrison, L. V. and Appleby, G. M. (1981). Analysis of lunar occultations II. Personal equation. MNRAS 196, 1005-1011 Read in full from the ADS scan. Source of the personal-equation expressions of Table 2 as functions of lunar elongation and star magnitude, the photoelectric control solution and the semidiameter correction of +0.04 arcseconds.
  8. 8primary Herald, D. et al. (2016, updated). VizieR B/occ, Occultation light curves, ReadMe Read the description section. Source of the video light-curve archive, the 0.3 to 0.4 arcsecond per second lunar motion, the 0.2 to 0.4 arcsecond per second normal limb rate and the 0.01 to 0.02 arcsecond resolution at video frame rate.
  9. 9trade Nugent, R. (ed.) (2007). Chasing the Shadow: The IOTA Occultation Observer's Manual. International Occultation Timing Association Read chapter 4 (software), chapter 5 (grazes: geometry, elevation correction, limit-line shift, Occult graze profile, station placement, central graze time, double stars). Written by IOTA practitioners about their own methods.
  10. 10peer-reviewed Morrison, L. V. (1979). An analysis of lunar occultations in the years 1943-1974 for corrections to the constants in Brown's theory, the right ascension system of the FK4, and Watts' lunar-profile datum. MNRAS 187, 41-82 Read the method sections 2 to 4 in the ADS scan (OCR text). Source of the residual definition, the partial derivatives, the 932.58 arcsecond semidiameter relation, the refraction correction, the Watts-chart position-angle shift, the weights with their error components, the 0.49 arcsecond residual spread, and the corrections to mean longitude and the dynamical time scale before 1955.5.
  11. 11primary Herald, D. and Gault, D. et al. (2022). VizieR VI/132C, Archive of lunar occultation observations (1623 to the present), doc.txt and ReadMe Read doc.txt in full and the ReadMe column list. Source of the custody history (HMNAO 1943, ILOC 1981 to 2008, IOTA from 2008), the observation counts and correction statistics, the reduction basis (DE440, Gaia EDR3 for most stars, deltaT splines, WGS84 conversion, polar motion, refraction, LOLA limb in a P,D frame at 0.01 degree spacing), and the default personal equations.
  12. 12trade British Astronomical Association, Lunar Section, Lunar occultations page Read the first part. States that grazes are predicted in the BAA Handbook, that timings go to IOTA and are archived in VizieR VI/132A, and that LIMOVIE and GRAZPREP-4 are used.
  13. 13trade RASNZ Occultation Section, Total occultations page Read. An older page that still names ILOC as the receiver of timings. Source of the statement that a 0.1 s timing fixes the Moon's edge to about 80 m, and of the O-C residual in arcseconds as observers meet it.
  14. 14company Preston, S., Occult v4 Overview (April 2019), tutorial PDF Downloaded and read via pdftotext. Mentions solar eclipses only in the feature list. No method, ephemeris or k statements.
  15. 15company Herald, D., Occult v4.2026 download page Read. States the program's scope including lunar total and grazing occultations, the Gaia EDR3 subset to magnitude 16.0, optional UCAC4, and that the author reserves all rights to the source code.